Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
Pennsylvania Casino friend referrals wanted. I still have openings and my friends are losers $$CASINO REFFERALS WANTED! GET PAID$$
Pennsylvania Casino friend referrals wanted. still have openings and my friends are losers $$CASINO REFFERALS FOR EXTRA BONUS $$ valid only for PA & NJ ( i think) My email: [nuggz151_[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (don't forget the ^ Underscore!!) Ok so I live in PA. Casinos are brand new here still so i only have a few that actually offer referrals and they are some of the best sites. For all these I will need your name (First&Last) e-mail address, and name of the casino you want me to put your name in for (or just say all of them if you want all) as I have to enter it on my page and submit it. I will reply to your email after I submit your info. you should also be expecting one from said site with my refferal link or one will be sent in my reply Note: You have to create your account with the same email address that you give me to use. I get a certain amount of referrals per site so if i'm full you wont see the site on here. (because of invisibility!... woah!...) I will check my email routinely and First come First serve rule applies. (unless deemed otherwise by provider of codes muahahaha!) fun tip: Medical Marijuana is legal in Pa and I am a cardholder. If I don't get back to you quickly i'm sorry but i am high as F&*$ fulfilling my lifelong dream to smoke all the dam weed i want and can! so f*cking sweet! Web address to casino sites are not my referral link. I'm sorry for your mistakes? Draftkings Sportsbook & Casino. I don't need your email for this but i will email you with my referral link if you email me asking for it. right now you get $100 after you deposit $50 with my referral. Also new users can get $100 for blackjack or a $1000 risk free sports bet. My referral link is posted here at the end i dunno if it will work tho so i'll only valid in states where you can gamble online like Pa, NJ. (Bonuses for dk have a 1x playthrough) https://casino.draftkings.com/cs/nuggz151/US-PA-CS
BetRivers $ SugarHouse Casino.
(3 referrals left available per site) https://www.betrivers.comhttps://pa.playsugarhouse.com/ These two are Brother and sister casinos or something... they offer the same for both, but both are sperate sites so thats 2x the bonuses. Also they do offer the BEST bonuses and promotions and quite often. But the main reason is they require only a 1x playthrough on all bonuses. Plus their rewards program lets you accumulate points to cash out on more bonus cash or bets wich is crazy because every other site is at least a 20x playthrough. I was up $2500 halfway through on one site, but by the end i only had $78... But hey thats still free money! Requirements. You must create a "new" player account and deposit $50 and wager at $50 within 30 days of me submitting your name and email. 3.Hollywood Casino. https://pa.hollywoodcasino.com/ Here you will get$10 given to you just for signing up! Plus $25 from my refferal. (narrators voice trembles with excitement) Just like the other two sites, it has all the games and a 1x playthrough! (witch is sourcery in my opinion) requirements. Must Be a new player, registering a new account! Must deposit $50 and wager at least $50 on games within 60 days. Note: Hollywood casino is awesome. I would love to say tons more about it, but I may have ripped some dabs and burnt some trees and I may allegedly have the munchies and a Strawberry Cheesecake in my frid
Pennsylvania Casino friend referrals wanted. still have openings and my friends are losers
$$CASINO REFFERALS FOR EXTRA BONUS $$ valid only for PA & NJ ( i think) My email: [nuggz151_[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) (don't forget the ^ Underscore!!) Ok so I live in PA. Casinos are brand new here still so i only have a few that actually offer referrals and they are some of the best sites. For all these I will need your name (First&Last) e-mail address, and name of the casino you want me to put your name in for (or just say all of them if you want all) as I have to enter it on my page and submit it. I will reply to your email after I submit your info. you should also be expecting one from said site with my refferal link or one will be sent in my reply Note: You have to create your account with the same email address that you give me to use. I get a certain amount of referrals per site so if i'm full you wont see the site on here. (because of invisibility!... woah!...) I will check my email routinely and First come First serve rule applies. (unless deemed otherwise by provider of codes muahahaha!) fun tip: Medical Marijuana is legal in Pa and I am a cardholder. If I don't get back to you quickly i'm sorry but i am high as F&*$ fulfilling my lifelong dream to smoke all the dam weed i want and can! so f*cking sweet! Web address to casino sites are not my referral link. I'm sorry for your mistakes?
Draftkings Sportsbook & Casino.
I don't need your email for this but i will email you with my referral link if you email me asking for it. right now you get $100 after you deposit $50 with my referral. Also new users can get $100 for blackjack or a $1000 risk free sports bet. My referral link is posted here at the end i dunno if it will work tho so i'll only valid in states where you can gamble online like Pa, NJ. (Bonuses for dk have a 1x playthrough) https://casino.draftkings.com/cs/nuggz151/US-PA-CS
These two are Brother and sister casinos or something... they offer the same for both, but both are sperate sites so thats 2x the bonuses. Also they do offer the BEST bonuses and promotions and quite often. But the main reason is they require only a 1x playthrough on all bonuses. Plus their rewards program lets you accumulate points to cash out on more bonus cash or bets wich is crazy because every other site is at least a 20x playthrough. I was up $2500 halfway through on one site, but by the end i only had $78... But hey thats still free money! Requirements. You must create a "new" player account and deposit $50 and wager at $50 within 30 days of me submitting your name and email. 3.Hollywood Casino. https://pa.hollywoodcasino.com/ Here you will get$10 given to you just for signing up! Plus $25 from my refferal. (narrators voice trembles with excitement) Just like the other two sites, it has all the games and a 1x playthrough! (witch is sourcery in my opinion) requirements. Must Be a new player, registering a new account! Must deposit $50 and wager at least $50 on games within 60 days. Note: Hollywood casino is awesome. I would love to say tons more about it, but I may have ripped some dabs and burnt some trees and I may allegedly have the munchies and a Strawberry Cheesecake in my frid
[Effortpost 6 of 15] Donald Trump's History of Bigotry
Based on the rhetoric of the 2016 Trump campaign, numerous racially charged tweets, anti-immigrant policies, and even the lack of diversity within his own staff, it doesn't seem surprising to say that Donald Trump is a bigot. Bear in mind that this will be quite long. It'll be broken down into three categories: pre-presidency, 2016 candidacy, and presidency. I should note that this post won't contain everything, so at the end I'll add other compilations of his remarks towards different groups.
The ads came from a grassroots anti-gambling group called the New York Institute for Law and Society created and run by longtime Trump friend and consultant, Roger Stone.
He claimed that it would be similar to President Eisenhower's "Operation Wetback" initiative, which deported 1.5 million illegal immigrants by bus, truck, and boat and dropped them off at remote parts of the US-Mexico border.
The capitalization of "TRAIL" refers to the Trail of Tears, an act of ethnic cleansing which forcibly relocated Native Americans and resulted in thousands of deaths.
2019 - Trump fired a series of tweets directed at Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib, claiming they are “from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe” and that they should "go back."
Stop AAPI Hate, an organization dedicated to tracking self-reported hostile anti-Asian instances since late March, says it has received over 2,000 reports since the project began. The group says it saw a surge in reports after Trump began using this rhetoric.
The group found that many anti-China comments were frequently associated with verbal and physical assault.
https://preview.redd.it/8476mv01epk51.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a4d0dc6a971e20739b9f737d20d672e3e47ae2e8 Top online casinos and some of the best casino sites enable people to play and bet money on casino games over the internet. It is a popular form of online gambling. Online Casinos typically offer odds and payback percentages that are marginally better than a physical casino. Some online casinos report higher payback percentages for slot machine games and some post payout percentage audits on their sites. Assuming that the online casino uses a correctly designed random number generator, table games like blackjack have a fixed house bottom. The payout rule for these games is determined by the rules of the game.
Which Are the Five Top Online Casinos in 2020?
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Spin Casino
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What Are the Best Casino Sites?
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Virgin/Trop online NJ Blackjack Money Maker circa 2017?
okay so I just want to know if anyone else was aware of this. Before you get too excited, unless they are total idiots, this doesn't work anymore. And if it does and the casino is actually open (Tropicana Atlantic City), have at it. Just make sure you let me know. So, there was a promotion when you would originally download either the Virgin and/or Tropicana casino apps. These apps were really only for people in the NYC/NJ/PA area because to collect winnings you had to go to the window at the Trop. So, you create a new account, one on each app. You have to put in your SSN and show yr ID at the window so no fake names. But you do get to tell people who sent you and although the account that sent you would probably get closed down after awhile, they still got tons of free online gambling money for every person who wrote their name down. Now, you would go to 7-11 and get a Money Gram for $200 because these two apps were simultaneously running promos where your first $100 spent playing black jack was returned to you. This is the glitch: When you play one $100 hand of black jack, whether you lose, win, or get 21, the $100 goes into your account. So you could make, between the 2 sites, $600. The worst case is you would break even. You could collect the $200 (one from trop, one from Virgin), $400 (winna winna chicken dinna) or $600 (21.21.) at a specific window in the Tropicana casino. My friend and I did this with over 400 people: turning them on to it, keeping half their winnings because without us they wouldnt win anything at all, often fronting them the money. Does it still work? I'm scared to look. Is this frowned upon or brilliant? Me, I say brilliant because all the casinos not only have the advantage but it's been proven that they take advantage of glambling addicts by using slot machine algorythms that help put addicts in "the zone" where the dopamine is flowing and OH! So close! Almost Won! and have found, when it comes to slots at least, that when someone gets an "almost" (really, no such thing but that's kind of obvious) that their brain reacts in the exact same way it would if they had gotten a "win" that time: same lighted pathways, same release of same amount of chemicals, same addictive stuff. So, no, I don't feel bad. And if you think I should, walk through the AC bus station one day and then tell me how you feel about it.
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Hi all! I had a really good NJ SCOOP this year. One of my bad habits is that I will play some online slots or roulette and lose a portion of my winnings there. It has been a recurring theme during my poker career and something that I continue to work on to avoid. How have you avoided giving the casinos additional rake by avoiding the Pit? I have started taking any extra money off the site immediately to avoid feeling like I have extra money to gamble with. I also have been practicing mindfulness and behavior modificaiton.
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I have tried out all NJ online casino's which are legal for me to gamble at. For the most part I have had a great experience as most of these casino's have a pretty good bonus system with minimal play-thru requirements. Support is a bit delayed on most sites which is understandable since they are a bit busy with everything going on. However, Harrah's and 888 Casino (these are both the same) are just awful. Thankfully I have been unable to deposit any money with either casino so it is not like I am trying to get money back. I created an account on both sites and it never let me fund the account. Instead the account was suspended after I attempted to make a deposit - pending me validating my identity. No problem, but I could not logon to upload the documents so I had to open a ticket which after a few days I received an upload path to send my files to. These were my Driver's License back and front, and me holding the Driver's license. It took me following up a week later to find out that this was validated but now I have to provide a bank statement with my name on it. I completed this and was e-mailed back a few days later asking me to provide a copy of my credit card front and back that I attempted to use for my deposit. I provided that three weeks ago and all of my attempts of following up have been ignored. Online Help was not too helpful as they inform me I have to contact the risk management team via e-mail. Additionally, their Chat is only available from 6:00pm to 11pm Eastern. I just wanted to make everyone aware since this is so Bizarre to me. I am trying to spend and likely lose money but there are such delays it is making it impossible. I am sure most people do not encounter this so I am not sure why this is so challenging for my account.
Hi everyone. I live in Virginia, but will be heading to New Jersey next weekend. I know that you can gamble/ play poker online, and I've seen a ton of promos that exist for new players... Lots of these promos don't even require a deposit with signup. I'd like to exploit these promos as best I could for the weekend I'm out.. My plan is to sign up for as many sites as I can, and try to satisfy the promotion requirements on the drive in (wife will be driving). From what I can tell, the "no deposit bonus" can be pretty easy to saitify for the casinos... My question to you all is, how is the best way to do this? There are so many sites, and I'm sure they all have their own fine print (finding the exact details of the promo are difficult... I signed up for one site preemptively, and my bonus will expire before my trip to NJ). Should I sign up for the sites before the trip? What is the verification processes like, and would I be able to actually make any real money from these promos over the period of 48 hours? Has anyone done anything similar to this? Thanks for the help!
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