PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play submitted by AlphainvestR to SPACs [link] [comments] Summary
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/s52e3uj1spf61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee074dc3208329f4fdeb8805b1d12246de1d37b9 The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. https://preview.redd.it/y5zx14szrpf61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=6eb9dd9f396306d54457b9ae47d7db74080fbd95 The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. Unit Economics Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/cze4lxo9spf61.png?width=359&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e6918db50bfeb7dc22ca57fb8ac06c1746d0d43 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation https://preview.redd.it/siqwt4wvrpf61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=210bd6435ebd54b984e60b8945bbe57f69f5bcc6 From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/8balzzyurpf61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=13313e6e38cb6c6b8e2bd425d4f63beb9e1e3b87 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares are trading at $19 today. |
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments.
Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic.
The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957.
November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year.
Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December.
“The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%.
“We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500.
Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday.
“My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities.
Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices.
Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs.
“It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons.
Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast.
Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington.
“The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?”
Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer
Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive.
“We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
December Almanac: Small Caps Have Shined
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
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Sector Weights Rising and Falling
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below.
Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May.
Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
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A Month to Be Thankful For
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for.
Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
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Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
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There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
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Biden - Best Since Reagan
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996.
On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956.
In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
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DJIA 1,000 Point Thresholds
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year.
The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67.
Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
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30,000 Reasons To Be Thankful
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful.
Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
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We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again.
Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
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Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
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Let’s be thankful that the fastest bear market in history (only 16 days) is officially a thing of the past.
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We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
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“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.”
The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
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We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
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Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
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Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
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Global investors should be thankful, as the MSCI Global Index broke out to new highs as well, suggesting this rally isn’t only about the US anymore.
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We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
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Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
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As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
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Earnings are expected to see a major bounce back, as the global economy gets back online next year, making many investors quite thankful.
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Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the final reason to be thankful? Dow at 30,000!
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Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce $247.63
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
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At Home Group Inc. $19.14
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
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CrowdStrike, Inc. $150.83
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
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DocuSign $226.87
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar General Corporation $218.01
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
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Momo Inc. $15.12
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
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Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $45.11
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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Autohome Inc. $105.89
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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PureCycle: The Overlooked Green Play submitted by AlphainvestR to TheDailyDD [link] [comments] Summary
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. This is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. The SPAC Deal PureCycle has struck a deal with ROTH CH Acquisition I that is expected to be finalized by the end of Q1 2021. PureCycle is to be acquired by ROTH CH Acquisition I with $76.5 million in trust. The deal is valuing the post-merger company at a $1.2 pro forma market capitalization and a $826 million Enterprise Value. The Enterprise Value is from the 118.3 million shares of ROCH capital sold at $10 plus the $310 million in debt that PureCycle raised by selling municipal bonds and $60 million in convertible notes minus the $667 million in cash that PureCycle will receive from the selling the shares. PureCycle plans on using the cash to finish Plant 1 and begin construction in Europe on Plant 2. The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. https://preview.redd.it/c4vn3wtzo9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee1759789b07a8f84b5340b9bd88ba33f7e39cca The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier to entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. https://preview.redd.it/1tw33st1p9g61.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca2fad49c9c136dd4e6881f59965469a722bb20f An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market, with rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP, it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. https://preview.redd.it/v4e28pw3p9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=32e5e3f697bb3cededce21b510c86bc50ee54f63 Unit Economics https://preview.redd.it/jm8d9bhfp9g61.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=833182a47b463fc7190c078236cccfe121e9314f Plant 1, which is being built now in Ironton, OH, will be PureCycle’s least efficient plant with modeled price / lb of $0.90 and EBITDA / lb of $0.45. Plant 2 will be a more efficient plant with improved unit economics of $0.55 / lb. The forecasted business is to include 5 plant clusters, that are much more efficient, with 825m pounds a year in capacity. The clusters give competitive advantage by leveraging the same infrastructure and reduced capex. PureCycle’s model was structured around a municipal bond that they raised, negotiated at 14 cents a pound for feedstock. However, owners of plastic waste are generally charged cost to get rid of it, which gives PureCycle a great opportunity to leverage the system to capture pricing at a much cheaper price point. The FCF and EBTIDA margin they are able to generate is extremely attractive at 58% and 56% even at the $1.00 price / lb. PureCycle’s growth strategy targets over $800 million in revenue with EBITDA margins in excess of 50% by 2024. The current business plan has PureCycle building ~ 1 billion in capacity over the coming 3-4 years and at $1 a pound results in $1b of revenue. At a 50% EBTIDA margin, PureCycle will do 500m in EBTIDA. All of this results in extremely attractive top line math, unit economics into margin profile, and return on invested capital. Additionally, the funding on these facilities can get 80% debt for the project level capex. Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/qgw28wjip9g61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a4b356b88c2dda1bc87fce0b79a3f13ef9bb9b0 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they did not have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. Guaranteed Revenue and LOI’s Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle’s Plant 1. Many other major retailers have written LOI’s and are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. I believe that for investors, PureCycle having deals with blue chip companies for long durations significantly de-risks any danger to revenue projections. Forecasting Valuation From a valuation perspective, by looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. https://preview.redd.it/lv19ramnp9g61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=61b52a36e14408714d9d53af64a566c165e1c8a8 Although there are no direct comps to PureCycle as the technology is one of a kind, I looked at Danimer Scientific (DNMR) who also recently completed a SPAC deal. Both companies have been formed from P&G developed patents to address the plastic problem that the environment faces. Danimer did purchase the patents outright but have owned them for close to 10 years and are still working to get the business going. Based on side-by-side comparisons of both companies self-projected business you can clearly see that PureCycle is trading at a significant discount. https://preview.redd.it/uia8vkjop9g61.png?width=999&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd93ab3b38c14f6593a55e7fd1c067141a4be7c3 Conclusion PureCycle (ROCH), with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high expected growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at an extremely attractive price point at 3.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is extremely lucrative even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25 with shares trading at $27 today. DISCLOSURE: I am currently Long common stock of ROCH. All investment decisions are yours to make. |
Summary submitted by AlphainvestR to SPACs [link] [comments]
There is an increasingly big push from both environmentally-conscious consumers and governmental regulation to solve the building global plastic problem. As the Democrats assume power in Washington a push for environmental policy is expected, and single use plastic being banned in several states is just one example of the regulation to be expected for the future. Most investors are focused on green energy and consumer technology, while waste management and recyclables go overlooked. PureCycle is a revolutionary technology company focused on transforming waste PP into virgin-like resin. The same story that is driving enthusiasm for Enphase, Sunrun, and Tesla can be applied and seen for PureCycle Technologies. There is a massive global market for its taking, as no other companies or technologies can efficiently address PP recycling at scale. PureCycle holds the exclusive license to its patented solvent-based purification recycling technology, with the ability to commercialize it and bring recycled PP to market. With a disruptive technology, strong moat around the process, and tremendous demand given the consumer and regulatory environment, this creates an extremely exciting opportunity. https://preview.redd.it/2df2vuf9shd61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f98998e45ec223d3538c8bf0a1399f099ea72bf The Market PP is used across a wide range of industries, including consumer packaged goods, electronics, automotive, building and construction, and agriculture. At the moment you see virgin PP in plastic containers, potato chip bags, razors, as well as food grade applications. The recycled PP at the moment can only be used for dark plastic applications such as trash cans, rugs, and plastic furniture due to the greying color and unpleasant odors that still remain. The annual global demand of PP is roughly 173 billion pounds selling at approximately $0.57 a pound landing the total addressable market at ~$98 billion. The PP market has grown at an average of 4% a year for the past 5 years and is expected to continue to climb at similar rates in the coming years. As of 2020, due to polypropylene being extremely difficult to recycle, less than 1% (.8%) of all purchased PP is recycled. The demand potential for high quality recyclable PP, technology moat, and large time and cost barrier of entry positions PureCycle in a very strong place to start to meet the demand and create a recycle loop that the market is desiring. https://preview.redd.it/q7pe049aphd61.png?width=359&format=png&auto=webp&s=263ad196487b21da29c7099e732d6c44f4923f75 An increasing number of companies are now setting sustainability mandates to act as a key differentiator. L’Oreal is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025, moving to 100% by 2030, while Procter & Gamble is targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2030. In a $98bn market, broad sustainability goals targeting 50% recycled plastic by 2025 represents a $49bn opportunity in the next five years. The demand side of this equation can be satisfied by PureCycle’s world-first recycling process, as it produces high quality resin without compromising appearance, purity or performance. PureCycle’s product quality has been tested and validated by Procter & Gamble, large contractual customers, and third-party engineering specialists. PureCycle is the only player able to capitalize on this tremendous demand opportunity and has already pre-sold 4x their existing capacity – all without a sales force. This technology can close the recycling loop for PP and be delivered in a cost-effective way. Proprietary Technology with Tremendous Pricing Upside PureCycle developed a physical separation process that utilizes a specialized solvent based purification process. All unit operations are well-known and commercially available at scales much larger than required by PureCycle and involves process operating conditions comparable to current polyolefin production conditions. This includes standard equipment like a Scheibel Extraction Column, a Decanter, Settler and Solid Extraction, candle filters, adsorption filters. This is important because it means the equipment is readily available and at the size that would be needed to scale the operations. The unique aspect here is what goes into the process, the filters/solvent used, temperature and pressure maintenance etc. This process also only consumes 1/7th the energy and is more cost efficient than producing virgin polypropylene. PureCycle can essentially recycle anything that has high PP content and create virgin quality resin. The attractive pricing upside is easily found in the market rates of virgin PP selling at ~$0.57 / lb and recycled PP costing between $1.00 to $2.00 / lb. With regulation and consumer demand driving businesses to buy recycled PP and PureCycle having a much higher quality product produced at a lower cost to other recycled PP it is safe to say there is a lot of pricing upside potential. https://preview.redd.it/khidc4durhd61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=18fd76c46e254de03c8dc34fd8f050dc6168eb9e Competition? Other approaches to plastic recycling have existed in the market for decades, but they are limited in application, not cost competitive, and have failed to gain any meaningful traction as a result. Chemical recycling does not yield contaminant-free resin – limiting its potential food grade applications – and also has high energy costs. Mechanical recycling only works in limited use cases – not with any discolored feedstock, as the output becomes gray – and the product generally smells and looks unprofessional with melt flow index issues. PureCycle owns the only process that can take any feedstock and produce resin at a comparable virgin quality to virgin plastic -- usable for food-grade consumption. PureCycle also has a solid margin profile, as they are able to produce the product at 1/7th the energy cost of virgin. https://preview.redd.it/q8wlwsuzrhd61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b6708f9d88fa3b6d64ff5a7c3df530fe3766fd6 The Bears Case Some investors are worried about the fact that Procter and Gamble are the true owners of the patents that created the technology and PureCycle is only leasing them. The concern is that for some reason P&G licensed out the technology to other players. P&G decided to invest and develop the technology to solve a problem that they had with desiring to make their packaging from recyclable products. They decided that they didn’t have the commercial ability to bring it to market and made more sense to find a 3rd party to scale the business and PureCycle was chosen. The lead scientists and people from P&G are still working with PureCycle in more of a partnership than simply licensing the technology out. P&G is still very heavily invested and desires to see the success and scaling of PureCycle for its own benefits and goals and has agreed to be on the line to personally protect the patents for PureCycle as part of the deal. The current deal with PureCycle is an agreement to perpetuity, which should ease any hesitations by investors. No one else will be licensing this process/technology for the duration of the patents and Purecycle has developed a lot of their own patents as part of the commercialization efforts. Another case against the buy is the fact that it is a SPAC deal between Roth and PureCycle and there is increased risk. This is in fact true, but the reality is the deal has already been announced and is simply waiting for the SEC to sign off. To date the SEC has not stopped an announced merger from closing for regulatory reasons and there is no reason to believe this deal should be any different. Roth is excited about the partnership as they view the business as a slam dunk opportunity. The Potential and Comps Major global commercial customers including L’Oreal, Procter & Gamble, Ravago and Total have already signed agreements committing to purchasing hundreds of millions of pounds a year. These contracts have already guaranteed 4 years of maximum output from PureCycle, while many other major retailers are potential to fund and drive the growth of other facilities and plants. PureCycle has a deal with Nestle who has a goal and company commitment to seeing that 100% of its packaging is 100% recycled by 2025. Deals like these will continue to drive demand for the technology that only PureCycle can deliver on as of today. From a valuation perspective looking at the landscape, environmental services companies, waste managers of the world trade at ~10x – 18x EBITDA. This includes players like Advanced Disposal, Republic Services, Waste Management. The process technology players such as Albemarle, Amyris, Trex, Rogers Corporation get a larger premium, trading at a ~20x – 25x EBITDA. For the players with high growth, high margin potential and in ESG, the multiple starts to jump up quite significantly to ~30x+ EBITDA, companies such as Enphase, Solaredge, Array, Plug Power, Ballard Power etc. PureCycle, with high value add and a unique offering, high margins, high growth, a proprietary process, large addressable market, and ESG is trading at a very attractive price point at 8.8x EBITDA. There is significant potential for rapid multiple expansion as their development plan is successfully executed. This is a hyper growth story in revenue/EBITDA as plants come online with attractive economics. Financial projections show ~60% gross margin on the products and a ~30% ROIC for future plants at scale. The return profile here is very attractive even with the pre-revenue valuation. Assuming 30x EBITDA, TP here is $237 by YE’25. |
In terms of some of the things I see on this sub (this post been shared a couple of places, but I do believe this sub aherds to a different ethic) try to take a (GIGANTIC) step back and think before you toss blind hate. This is meant to contribute. submitted by Elio8Twitch to LowSodiumCyberpunk [link] [comments] If you see things missing in the list of missing content on ether cut content part of this post: that's you want in there, il add them in edit. Please quote a source then first, and I will add it to the list. First... some mythbusting "OMG THEY GETTING SUED" if you read into the lawyer companies in lead of this, you will quickly see its a money grab. F.ex of their "invitation" to any investors, they say " if you have more than 100 000 invested, contact us. " Or else they don't bother. That should tell you all you need to know about that "ITS BUGGY AND UNPLAYABLE!" : many games has released in worse state than this, but few of those got a several hotfixes within days of release who stabilised the game. Its weaker on the core consoles launch editions, but it works. And SOME people are having problems. But not everyone. "BUT THE MEDIA SAY..." and the media needs you to click their articles, when they say "game is broken" people get curious, your opinion is not your own all the sudden, its based on a belief the media always tells the truth. And in serious cases, like the recent events in Washington, they aim to tell stories of truth. Gaming journalism is a bit different. While many do their jobs in a correct manor (please see kotaku before its demise ) Most are based on clickbaiting, you start commenting on facebook post, oand you bring attention to it because you do not agree with a ridiculous title of an article, you already gone into their trap. Do not assume gaming journalism is stable. Its run as clickbait design at 90% of its cases. And its rumor mill central. Perspective and a healthy individuality and respect is IMPORTANT. Adhere to an opinion formed by your own thoughts, not someone else's. Base it on facts not a herd mentality to be part of the herd. "They removed features!!!" No. If you are not part of the developer team, there is NO way you can be aware how the game was designed and worked on. here is some of the items "removed" and some OPINIONS on that, something everyone need to have, not sit there tossing hate because the game did not meet your specific design you imagined. Also remember they have said several times the game is subject to change. And this was said multiple times. - Dual Wielding : This was without a doubt hard to implement, without making you overpowered, you have guns in this game you can construct your attributes around, having the added effects per weapon split on 2 weapons, would break the games balance and challenge. Also its not essential, a easy and logical cut. - Wall running : This probably did not find its logical place, as f.ex it is not meant to be call of duty; they want to keep you more grounded and not have you move around to illogical, (dodge thing is a great feature instead of this) also it serves no longer purpose unless you have skills to reflect it. Level design also does not give this skill any place to be used a lot. - Jackie cut content : As much I understand; they base this on the cutscenes. If there is an actual source or older gameplay saying it was more, the following still applies : Players spend on average over 10-15 HOURS in prologue. Where they build up a knowledge and friendship with Jackie and the world. learning its basic steps and getting to explore a whole district. Good idea. But to expand on that for 20-30 hours. before even hitting act 1, would destroy the immersion more. You will be TO invested in Jackie, and people would be angry and tossing salt on boards about why they killed him after spending so much time with him. - Animations and cut scenes : This is one of those I do not have any information about, I feel it's more about the story design. f.ex the scene in the early gameplay where you wake up and find a sexual partner leaving the apartment. Or other stuff for immersion like small scenes like this. The "morning after" scene I do 100 % assume is because the players need to establish their own sexuality, and since its in focus they don't want to force anything over you. I do however miss more animations, but this game has GREAT cutscenes and this is nothing major. - Train stations and subway : This might been pushed down the line for production, working on the city, its incredible large amount of quests, activities ,voice work, syncing, music and the incredible graphics and bugs. At some point they realised it could ether be added later or that they have problems putting the player into it without problems. Also it might been slow for players, not everyone (#gtakids) would like to fast travel.... in a slow manor... (like really.... fast travel needs to be fast) - No hair dressecosmetic changes after start : I do believe this one was in there, but with the sexuality and transgender options; they might want to track how the crowd reacts to some of the options. I imagine they want to work towards having this as a free DLC pack shortly down the road. Not having a hairdresser alone seems weird tough, but it might just got pushed down the line to be its own pack complete release like Witcher did. - Apartments, I seen people say you were supposed to own multiple apartments, but if the homes don't serve a bigger focus, and there is no cosmetic options present to make the home look good or interact more with (say a garage, with the possibility to customise your car, add items to apartment with actual purpose (say for training, shooting range, and so on) These items are logical to add later, as they serve no direct disruption to launch window of game. They are things i really hope do get added, and of course I understand with the bugs and problems during launch that this was not a priority. On a side note. you do get several homes in the games, but not maybe as you imagine them to be acquired. Will not spoil this. And by all means, contribute with constructive responses. I would love to add ideas to this list also. Share what you think can be added to the game in a realistic manor. Here are some of my thoughts : Generated quests and activities, based on voice work already present. Police, Hits and other activites who are simple but returns and are good way to even fill the world more up. There is no secret, but no "failed" status that this game needs more activities. racing, gambling, and so on. some of these elements I expect. Racing is a thing in the game. But I have actually (even after 200 hours +++ ingame) not done this questline, but I do not think its repeatable after the quest (?), and it's apparently not challenging. So that could be expanded on. I expect gambling to be arriving without a doubt in the casino DLC, as if people are not aware there is a unfinished and closed off area in the game of a casino that serves as a probably and quite guaranteed DLC in the future, or why would they have the area present and not just have nothing there. Image (watermarked for stealing) is below. Concept art from CDPR Roleplaying jobs reflecting careers for f.ex : Corp, trauma, nomad and police. Mostly referring to the generated quests mentioned above in design. While I wont say what the endings are; some did not enjoy it. I would love some small continuation. But then I realise, what if that is one of he awesome expansions comings. Boats..... More cats, I want to be the crazy cat lady at floor 89. Meaningful items or more memorabilia from the adventure to add to the apartment, Arcade machines ( probably also coming) And lastly... remember... Online is coming. We have a hell of a lot of constructive response to give to the developers. Show them what you want, not a soulless hate. Comment adds: Jaomaldito : To me the only thing I was expecting alot before the game came out was the implants, you see so many cool npcs with cybernetic arms and legs, you see those in the previews and I was like: "I cant wait to make my merc look more like a machine than human". ------------------------------ And as said before : You can report any and all bugs here, help the developers bringing the most repeating problems up into prioritising here = https://support.cdprojektred.com/en/ You also have the official forums; who supply known issues, solutions and information in their different subjects both technical and ingame . https://forums.cdprojektred.com/ Here is the concept art next to the area outside the town. No reason to have this present, unless there is a plan for it in the future. https://preview.redd.it/c4rvtuc5r2a61.jpg?width=822&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=112206a9e05659f81a27ab0fce3ac31bf0625b22 |
Stocks next week will come off one of their best months ever into a busy week of economic data and the ongoing tensions between the spreading virus and positive news on vaccines and treatments.
Another highlight of the week is expected to be Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the Senate Banking Committee. They will be discussing the emergency measures taken to help the economy after the outbreak of the pandemic.
The Dow was up nearly 13% for November so far, and if it holds its gains into Monday’s close, it will chalk up its best month since January, 1987. The S&P 500 closed at a record 3,638 and was up 11.3% for the month. The gain is its best performance since April’s 12.7%, which was the third best month for the S&P 500 since its origin in 1957.
November was a big month also for market rotation, with investors favoring stocks that would benefit from a rebounding economy and showing less love for long-held favorites among big tech and internet names. Financials were up more than 17% in the past month, and industrials rose nearly 15%, as investors bet vaccines would help the economy return to normal next year.
Tech notched a single digit gain for the month so far and lagged the broader market. But some strategists expect big tech and internet names, stay-at-home stocks, to fare better in December.
“The death of big tech has been announced over and over again, and we see that the market doesn’t abandon them, but in fact migrates to big tech whenever there are concerns,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The post-pandemic question is whether big tech can co-exist with the small and mid-cap.” Small caps were one of the biggest winners in November, with the Russell 2000, up 20.6%.
“We did not see major selling in Nasdaq,” as investors put funds in cyclicals and value, she said. Nasdaq was up 11.9% for the month so far, slightly better than the S&P 500.
Experts have warned that there could an even bigger surge in virus cases, following the Thanksgiving holiday which could start to show up in the coming week. There have been more than 12.6 million cases in the U.S.
Jobs report
There are some important economic reports in the week ahead, the most important being Friday’s November employment report. There is is also ISM manufacturing data Tuesday.
“My thought here is the data is going to matter because if you listen to the Fed, and if you read through the Fed’s minutes, they’re in transition here. They’re becoming more concerned about the rise in Covid cases, certainly about the lack of fiscal support,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities.
Strategists say another key report will be weekly jobless claims, which showed an increase in each of the last two weeks. “The employment data clearly has been weakening,” said Faranello. If it continues, it will keep a lid on Treasury yields, which move opposite prices.
Jefferies economist Tom Simons expects the elimination of Census Bureau workers to detract from the job gains in November, and he forecasts the economy added just 340,000 jobs.
“It is hard to envision a particularly strong report coming out on Friday,” noted Simons.
Bank of America economists forecast just 150,000 payrolls were added for November, compared to 638,000 in October. The private sector is expected to add 300,000, but expected government layoffs impacted total payrolls in their forecast.
Faranello said he expects the bond market to be much more active than normal this December because of the pending change in the White House, as well as the runoff election in Georgia Jan. 5 that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority. The market has also been concerned about the lack of stimulus from Washington.
“The theme in the market right now is definitely hope and optimism versus the on the ground dynamic with Covid,” said Faranello. “The real question is can the vaccine rally hold up if we see the virus rise and we continue to see shutdowns. How does the market perform in light of that?”
Krosby said she expects the market to watch for vaccine news. “The question I think is now whether or not we see the emergency authorization given to Pfizer and followed by Moderna,” she said. “I think that is a catalyst to the market because that is when you will start to see the vaccine distributed.” The Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee has a meeting set for Dec. 10 to discuss emergency authorization for the Pfizer
Analysts expect investors to continue to gravitate to value and cyclicals, since they could have the biggest gains compared to already high priced big tech. But tech is still attractive.
“We still see the Nasdaq leading,” said Krosby. “Whereas we enjoyed the vaccine related boom in the market, the fact is that investors and and traders are looking for big tech names to give them that growth in earnings and revenues.”
December Almanac: Small Caps Have Shined
December is now the number three S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). In 2018, DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of 2018 is not highly likely. When December is down it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half of the month.
In the last seventeen election years, December’s ranking changed modestly to #2 DJIA, #5 NASDAQ, but S&P 500 remains #3. Small caps, measured by the Russell 2000, have had a field day in election-year Decembers. Since 1980, the Russell 2000 has lost ground just once in ten election years in December. The average small cap gain in all ten years is a solid 3.0%. The Russell 2000’s single loss was in 1980 when the Prime Rate was 21.5%.
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Sector Weights Rising and Falling
For most of the past year, one significant trend on a sector by sector basis has been the outperformance of sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary. The relative strength lines of these sectors have consistently shown outperformance versus the rest of the S&P 500 as a whole, but since August, other sectors have begun to take the wheel. As we noted in today's Sector Snapshot, just about every sector has had a banner month in November with some of the biggest month to date rallies of the past 30 years, but some sectors have seen much larger returns than others. One of the best examples of this has been Energy which has risen over 35% in November. Similarly, Financials has risen an astounding 19.5% this month compared to more modest but still significant rallies of around 10% from Tech and Consumer Discretionary. Given those large degrees of outperformance, the relative strength lines of Energy and Financials have taken a sharp turn higher in recent weeks. Similarly, they have seen a turnaround in their weightings in the S&P 500 as shown in the charts below.
Over the past three months, the Financial sector has gained a full percentage point weighting while the Technology sector has lost 1.36 percentage points with a decline in weighting in three straight months. For Financials, that is the largest gain in weighting in a three month span since January 2017. For Tech, outside of the reshuffling in 2018 that saw a large share of its weight change into Communication Services, the last time the sector lost this much or more in weighting in three months was November of 2008. Prior to this recent string of losing weight over the past three months, Tech had seen weight gain in every month from October of last year through August. Even though the weight loss has been significant, it has only put a dent in the increased share of the entirety of the past year as the sector's weight is only back down to where it was in May.
Similarly, looking at the other sectors, while Financials have added a full percentage point in share over the past few months, that follows nine months of declines running from last December through August. That brings the sector's weighting back above 10% in the S&P 500, but that is only at the highest level since March. Similarly, Materials and Industrials have also seen their weights rise for three and four months in a row, respectively. As for Energy, the 0.44 percentage point gain in November is set to snap six straight months of declines; the longest such streak since at least 1990. As with Financials, that turn around this month has only put a dent in the longer term trend of weight loss as Energy's weighting is now only back to its highest level since July. Opposite of Energy, Consumer Discretionary is on pace to lose weight for the first time since March.
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A Month to Be Thankful For
Heading into today with just three trading days left in November, the average Russell 1,000 stock was up 17.44% month to date. As shown below, not one of the five largest stocks is up even close to 17% on the month. For a market that had recently been driven higher in large part because of the five mega-cap Tech names, November has seen the mega-caps stall a bit while the rest of the market has seen broad participation. This is the type of breadth that market bulls have been waiting and hoping for.
Of the 35 largest stocks in the Russell 1,000, Tesla (TSLA) is up the most so far this month with a gain of 43%. The other big winners include Chevron (CVX), JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Disney (DIS), and Comcast (CMCSA). Not one stock in the top 35 is down on the month, but the ones that are up the least are Netflix (NFLX), Procter & Gamble (PG), Amazon (AMZN), and Home Depot (HD).
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Looking at sectors, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1,000 is up 46% month-to-date but still down 27% year-to-date. Three other sectors have seen their stocks average MTD gains of more than 20%: Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Stocks in the Health Care and Utilities sectors are up the least on an average basis this month, but even these underperformers are still up more than 5%.
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There are 37 stocks in the Russell 1,000 up more than 50% so far in November. Below is a list of this month's biggest winners. Coty (COTY) and Nordstrom (JWN) stand out the most with gains of more than 100%, followed by Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Empire State Realty (ESRT). The list of biggest winners this month is full of names that got hit hardest by COVID in areas like energy, travel, retail, and real estate. Notably, while these stocks are up an average of 68.5% in November, they're still down an average of 23% on the year. On a median basis, they're down even more year-to-date at -31.55%.
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Biden - Best Since Reagan
The market started off November on a positive note, and even after the election has continued to add to its gains. Through the close today (11/24), the S&P 500 is up 7.90% since the close on Election Day. Relative to every other Presidential election since the beginning of the S&P back in 1928, the three-week performance of the S&P 500 following this Election Day ranks as the second-best of all time. It came down right to the wire, but the only other US President to see a stronger market reaction to their election (or re-election) was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (7.97%). Behind Reagan and Biden, the only other Presidents where the S&P 500 experienced an upside move of 5%+ in reaction to their elections were Hoover in 1928 and Clinton in 1996.
On the downside, the most negative reaction of the market in the three weeks after Election Day was the 14.75% decline following President Obama's election in 2008. In addition to Obama, the S&P 500's four other three-week downside moves of more than 5% came after the elections of Truman in 1948, the election of George W Bush in 2000 (although at the time it was unknown who was the winner of that election), the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932, and Dwight D Eisenhower's re-election in 1956.
In aggregate, the S&P 500 hasn't historically responded all that great in the three weeks after a Presidential election. For every one since 1928, the median return of the S&P 500 in the three weeks after Election Day has been a gain of just 0.35%. Breaking out returns by party, in the three weeks after a Democratic candidate is elected, the S&P 500's median performance is a decline of 1.11% compared to a median gain of 3.04% when a Republican is elected.
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DJIA 1,000 Point Thresholds
What a wild year 2020 has been! With the DJIA closing above 30,000 today, it was the second first-time upside break of a 1,000 point threshold this year. While there have only been two new upside crosses of 1,000 point thresholds, due to the sharp pullback in March from the pandemic that briefly took the DJIA below 19,000 on a closing basis, there have actually been 12 different upside 1,000 point thresholds at some point in the year.
The table below lists the first time that the DJIA closed above each 1,000 point threshold in its history along with the total number of times the index has crossed that level on a closing basis throughout history. The thousand point level that has seen the most crosses on a closing basis was 11,000 (87 crosses) while 10,000 ranks second at 67.
Obviously, the higher the DJIA goes, the less impactful a move of 1,000 points becomes. At current levels, 1,000 points represents just 3.3%, which is really nothing more than a very bad day in the market. Given the diminishing impact of 1,000 points in the DJIA these days, their significance declines. Even still, the twelve new 1,000-point crosses since the 2016 election has given the President (who has publicly discussed the stock market more than any other President in history) plenty of ammunition to tweet about.
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30,000 Reasons To Be Thankful
As 2020 winds down, it has been an extremely tough year on all of us. Still, there are many reasons to be thankful and today we will share some reasons investors should be thankful.
Stocks have had one of the largest reversals ever in 2020, something to be thankful for. In fact, this could be the first year ever to see the S&P 500 down more than 30% peak-to-trough and finish higher.
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We should also be thankful that Congress was split in 2020, likely marking the 11th consecutive year the S&P 500 gained under a split Congress. Gridlock is good they tell us and that very well could be true yet again.
Want something else to be thankful for? We likely will have a split Congress for another two years after the two Georgia runoffs are official.
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Let’s be thankful that it is looking like stocks once again will be higher the year a President is up for re-election. In fact, you have to go back to FDR in the ‘40s the last time the S&P 500 was lower for the year when a President was up for re-election.
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Let’s be thankful that the fastest bear market in history (only 16 days) is officially a thing of the past.
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We are thankful that we are in a new bull market, which if history plays out once again, could have a lot of life left to it. In fact, the average bull market has lasted more than five years.
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“Let’s be thankful that the huge move off the March lows was a major clue of more strength,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We noted at the time (many different ways) that the enormous move we saw off the March lows likely suggested significantly higher prices, while many ignored the market signals and instead looked for a re-test for months on end.”
The 20-days off the March lows was the second best 20-day rally ever and sure enough, the returns have been very strong.
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We are finally seeing many stocks participate in this bull market, another reason to be thankful. In fact, the Value Line Arithmetic Index recently made new all-time highs. This index is a great look at what the ‘average’ stock is doing and is a sign that this move isn’t being led by just a few large cap tech stocks.
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Let’s be thankful that the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline line is at new highs. This looks at how many stocks are going up versus down and new highs are a sign of very healthy participation.
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Emerging markets have started to turn higher and we are thankful that this group could be on the verge of a major breakout to new highs, clearing their peak from 2007. As we move into ’21, this is one group we think could continue to do quite well for investors.
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Global investors should be thankful, as the MSCI Global Index broke out to new highs as well, suggesting this rally isn’t only about the US anymore.
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We upgraded our view on small caps in September and the Russell 2000 Index is currently on pace to have its best monthly return ever. Investors should be thankful that this group is finally participating, as there are many more small caps than large caps, another sign of improving breadth, while small caps are also more domestic by nature and could be suggesting a strong US economy next year.
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Investors should be thankful for the incredible strength around the election, as the S&P 500 gained more than 1% four consecutive days. This is extremely rare, yet, extremely bullish going out a year.
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As we showed in Frothy Sentiment Rides Bullish Technicals, the huge number of stocks in the S&P 500 making new monthly highs should make bulls quite thankful.
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Earnings are expected to see a major bounce back, as the global economy gets back online next year, making many investors quite thankful.
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Economic forecasts may not develop as predicted.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the final reason to be thankful? Dow at 30,000!
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Zoom Video Communications, Inc. $471.61
Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $694.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.99 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share on revenue of $685.00 million to $690.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 971.43% with revenue increasing by 316.89%. The stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 72.1% above its 200 day moving average of $274.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,957 contracts of the $500.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 15.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 15.3% move in recent quarters.
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Salesforce $247.63
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.75 per share on revenue of $5.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.73 to $0.74 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.00% with revenue increasing by 16.33%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.9% above its 200 day moving average of $199.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 18, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,759 contracts of the $260.00 call and 8,560 contracts of the $260.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
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At Home Group Inc. $19.14
At Home Group Inc. (HOME) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $470.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estiamtes are for year-over-year revenue growth of 47.46%. Short interest has increased by 9.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 93.5% above its 200 day moving average of $9.89. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 522 contracts of the $18.00 call expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 26.2% move in recent quarters.
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CrowdStrike, Inc. $150.83
CrowdStrike, Inc. (CRWD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, December 2, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.01 per share on revenue of $213.70 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.04 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $211.00 million to $215.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 111.11% with revenue increasing by 70.80%. Short interest has increased by 43.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 51.8% above its 200 day moving average of $99.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,249 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.7% move in recent quarters.
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DocuSign $226.87
DocuSign (DOCU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $360.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.19 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $358.00 million to $362.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 44.44%. The stock has drifted lower by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 38.6% above its 200 day moving average of $163.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 6,534 contracts of the $180.00 call expiring on Friday, March 19, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 10.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
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Dollar General Corporation $218.01
Dollar General Corporation (DG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.97 per share on revenue of $8.00 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 68% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 38.73% with revenue increasing by 14.43%. Short interest has increased by 8.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.1% above its 200 day moving average of $187.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 893 contracts of the $220.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.3% move in recent quarters.
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OrganiGram $1.33
OrganiGram (OGI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $14.77 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 40.00% with revenue increasing by 20.20%. Short interest has increased by 7.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.4% below its 200 day moving average of $1.52. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,470 contracts of the $5.00 call expiring on Friday, June 18, 2021. The stock has averaged a 14.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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Momo Inc. $15.12
Momo Inc. (MOMO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 AM ET on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $542.76 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $542.00 million to $557.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 43.28% with revenue decreasing by 12.85%. Short interest has decreased by 25.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.7% below its 200 day moving average of $19.56. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 13, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,128 contracts of the $19.00 call expiring on Friday, December 4, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
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Marvell Technology Group Ltd. $45.11
Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, December 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.25 per share on revenue of $750.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.22 to $0.28 per share on revenue of $712.00 million to $788.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 47.06% with revenue increasing by 13.27%. Short interest has increased by 69.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $32.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 13,018 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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Autohome Inc. $105.89
Autohome Inc. (ATHM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:30 AM ET on Monday, November 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.08 per share on revenue of $326.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $317.00 million to $323.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 31.71% with revenue increasing by 7.62%. Short interest has decreased by 12.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 25.3% above its 200 day moving average of $84.51. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, November 17, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,382 contracts of the $90.00 put expiring on Friday, December 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.4% move in recent quarters.
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It is a pretty safe bet that Washington will not move to legalize online gambling anytime soon because it is so against it. We are not lawyers and once again stress the importance of contacting one if you are unsure of what we suggest about online gambling laws in Washington. Washington Gambling Laws (Sections 4.24.070 – 9.46.0325) RCW 4.24.070 Online casinos in Washington are not permitted. No licenses were issued since the law on Washington online gambling hasn’t been discussed. If you try to access online casinos in other states, you might not be able to open them, since they usually block users from the states where online casinos aren’t legal. Well, it’s not all bad news. Gambling online is quickly becoming the way to place a bet. More Americans are turning to their mobile devices and laptops to play their favorite slots, poker games or bet on sports online.. If you live, work, vacation in the US, you are probably much closer to a legal gambling state than you think. Even if they are not recognized by the state of Washington, you can still find various sports betting sites that accept residents from Washington. If you decide you want to gamble on sports, you must only do so at safe locations such as legal overseas operators like Bovada, BetOnline, SportsBetting, BetDSI, and MyBookie. Unfortunately, no. Washington has one of the strictest laws when it comes to online gaming, including slots online. Slots and online gambling is outright banned in Washington state. What are the chances that we get full-fledged Washington online casinos? The state of Washington has, as we have stated, made it a crime for you to gamble online. While you can theoretically be arrested for online gambling, you will find that the easiest way to bet on sports is by simply visiting one of the online gambling options we have listed. Of course, we do not officially recommend this. Wink wink, nudge nudge... Yes. Washington residents can play at online bingo sites that are as safe as the other gambling websites reviewed on this page. Hopefully, this new online gambling app will change things around the state. The State of Washington is behind the times with gambling laws from a bygone era. x No. Due to specific state laws, there are no legal gambling apps in Washington State. Some apps or sportsbooks will accept WA registrations but technically if you sign up and bet, you are breaking the law. Washington's new sports betting law does not allow for state-wide mobile sportsbooks.
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